No Quick Fix for Housing Prices

The Treasury Department's rescue plan for the U.S. financial industry doesn't directly address the root cause of the crisis: falling home prices. Reuters Foreclosures in Stockton, Calif., discourage prospective sellers from putting their houses on the market. The government's plan, which includes taking stakes in major financial institutions and temporarily guaranteeing certain new bank debt, could cushion the economy and thus the housing market from further blows. But many economists say additional measures are needed to stimulate demand for homes and to reduce mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures. At the heart of the rescue plan is an effort to keep the credit crunch from sending the economy into a tailspin. "If the financial system doesn't get working again, then the economic downturn is going to be much worse, and that means the housing market will be a lot worse than it otherwise would be," says Frederic Mishkin, a Columbia University economist who stepped down as a Federal Reserve Board governor in August. But some economists say the government needs to do more to address the underlying problems that triggered the credit crisis. "It's very disappointing" that the plan doesn't do anything "to stop the spiral in home prices," which is reducing net worth and creating a falloff in consumer spending, says Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein. He proposes that the federal government offer low-interest loans to replace 20% of homeowners' mortgages. The government's latest intervention comes as mortgage delinquencies continue to climb and home prices are plummeting in many markets. Some 5% of mortgages were at least 30 days past due at the end of the third quarter, according to Equifax and Moody's Economy.com, up from 4.6% in the second quarter and 3.5% a year earlier. In Florida and Nevada, delinquency rates now top 8%. Nationwide, house prices have fallen 18% from their peak in the first quarter of 2006, according to Case Shiller. By another measure, from the National Association of Realtors, home prices are off 12% from their peak. They are expected to fall an additional 10% to 15% between now and mid-2009, says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. Falling prices are feeding a vicious cycle that leads to more mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures. As more Americans end up "under water," or owing more on homes than they are currently worth, more people are likely to walk away from mortgages, causing foreclosures to rise further and adding to negative market psychology. The rescue effort could buy the government some time to get other measures up and running -- and to see whether they will help stabilize home prices. Some analysts say one government initiative that appears to be bearing fruit is the increase in loan limits of mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration -- to as high as $729,000 in some cities. In September, FHA mortgages financed 28% of home purchases, up from 19% in August, according to Zelman & Associates, a housing research firm, and the number of buyers seeking government-backed mortgages more than doubled from last year, as houses have become affordable again. "If you want to buy a home, and you have enough money for a modest down payment, it's not that hard to get a mortgage today," says Thomas Lawler, a housing economist in Leesburg, Va. Over time, the government's rescue effort could make it easier for borrowers in high-cost markets such as California, New York and Boston to get a mortgage by reducing rates for jumbo loans, those too big for government backing, says Richard K. Green, director of the Lusk Center for Real Estate Development at the University of Southern California. Rates on fixed-rate jumbo loans currently average 7.91%, according to HSH Associates, more than a full percentage point above rates on conforming loans eligible for government backing, which jumped nearly a third of a percentage point Tuesday to 6.6%. But fundamental problems remain. The supply of homes on the market remains stubbornly high, while demand for those homes remains relatively weak. Home builders, including Stuart Miller, chief executive of Lennar Corp., are lobbying for a $15,000 to $20,000 tax credit to spur demand, saying the $7,500 credit passed by Congress in July has failed to jump-start sales. Prof. Green says the government needs to push mortgage companies to take advantage of the Hope for Homeowners program, which aims to put borrowers into affordable loans, but requires they share any resulting price appreciation with the federal government. The program "pretty much gets the incentives right," he says. One problem with the refinancing program is that it will help only 400,000 troubled homeowners, according to some estimates, well short of the nearly 12 million Americans who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth and are in danger of default. Chris Mayer, vice dean of Columbia Business School, says the government should push mortgage rates down to 5.25% in order to spur demand. Prof. Mayer has proposed that the government refinance homeowners who live in their homes, can document their income and show they can afford the new mortgage. When borrowers owe more than their homes are worth, he says, the government and the mortgage holder should share the write-down in equity when the loan is refinanced.